"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." - C. S. Lewis

Thur 6-06-13 D Day Anniversary 

Pres Reagan at 40th Anniversary of D Day

Gentlemen, I look at you and I think of the words of Stephen Spender's poem. You are men who in your "lives fought for life...and left the vivid air signed with your honor…."

Meal…134m old crop + 137 new crop vs 75-175 expected

Corn…107 old + 52 new vs 500-800 expected

Beans…48 old + 590 new vs 300-700 expected

Wheat…-33 old + 665 new vs 300-600 expected

Soy Oil…31 old + nil new vs 30-40 expected

Export Summary  

AM Update RF



Morning Comments

Farm Direction

FC Stone Blog

Wed 6-05-13

Morning Comments 5-05-13

SW Kansas Hay Fire at Ethonol Plant

Tuesday 6-4-13

Soybean Planting Delays by RandyM RJO



Monday 6-3-2013

Crop Progress Summary 6-13-13

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Toth Corn Tech

Toth Soybean & Meal Tech

July 1 Minute Corn Chart

 INDEX FUND PERSPECTIVE - DJ  

Index funds begin rolling out of long July positions

into more deferred positions Friday.

Index fund total position reported at  380,000 corn, 124,000 beans, 58,000 meal, 89,000 oil and 154,000 chgo wheat.

 Saturday 6-1-2013

"It could have been worse"

Has Spent 350 Days in Front Lines of Tunisia, Italy  Waterloo Courier  2-4-1945

Negative Interest Rates EU

Several interesting articles

Memorial Day Origin

Friday 5-31-13

Weather South of Springfield Illinois

Weekly Export Sales -- Solid Meal, Old Crop Bean Cancellations     

Meal…149m old crop + 41m new vs 100-250 expected

Corn…86 old + 790 new vs 500-800 expected

Beans…-108 old + 757 new vs 300-800 expected

Wheat…36 old + 728 new vs 300-700 expected

Oil…2.9 old + nil new vs 5-10 expected

     Thursday    5-30-13

     New crop corn and beans are above the YTD average.   The January average was 5.86 and 12.96.  Our crystal ball is underwater but making some catchup sales or protecting downside above the average should make some sense.    Beating the Average



     Pioneer Woman Blog

     Wall Street Journal Article

    What we should grasp, however, from the lessons of European history is that, first, there is    nothing necessarily benevolent about programmes of European integration; second, the desire to  achieve grand utopian plans often poses a grave threat to freedom; and third, European unity has been tried before, and the outcome was far from happy.

~ Margaret Thatcher, Statecraft: Strategies for a Changing World (2002)

  Wednesday 5-29-13

  Nice rally today as the monsoon continues.  Cargil moved there bid back to the August futures t  today.  The rally brings us back above average in Dec corn and near average prices for Nov soybeans.   It is time to pay attention on new crop sales.  It is a critical time of year.   You have to sell into fear as difficult as it is.   

Forcast turning wetter at Midday

THE MIDDAYS CAME OUT WETTER STILL IN THE 1-5 DAY FORECAST, AS I MENTIONED AND THE 11-15 DAY IS WETTER THAN RECENT RUNS, WHICH GAVE US A FUNDMENTAL RESASON TO RALLY CZ BACK OVER 5.60

                                THE NEW CROP CORN RALLY HAS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT WHEAT, WHICH IS STILL UP 7-9 CENTS IN CHICAGO, AS WE STILL ARE WANTING FOR SOME FINISHING RAINS IN THE SW PLAINS, BUT CAN’T SEEM TO GET ANYTHING THAT COULD HELP IN THE DRIEST SPOTS

                                THE BEAN COMPLEX IS BOUCING DUE TO THE RALLY IN NEW CROP CORN OR THE GRAINS IN GENERAL, BUT ONE HAS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT THE MORE WE TALK OR FACTOR IN LESS CORN ACRES, WE ARE GOING TO SEE THE BULK OF THAT ACREAGE GO TO BEANS AND SO BEANS ARE UNCHANGED IN NEW CROP AND DOWN 5-6 CENTS IN JULY

                                ROGERS ROLL STARTS TOMORROW AND WEEKLY EXPORT SALES ARE DELAYED DUE TO THE HOLIDAY UNTIL FRIDAY

 RJO BoB

 Advance Trading

 Tuesday 5-28-13

Corn 86 pct planted vs 90 ave.

Iowa 85 pct vs 98 ave. Illinois 89 pct vs 89 ave.

Soy 44 pct planted vs 61 ave.

Iowa and Illinois both 40 pct planted vs 83 and 53 pct ave.

Spring wheat 79 pct planted vs 86 ave.

Winter wheat rated 31 pct good equal to last week with 42 pct poor,up 1.

Oklahoma rating down 2.

THE QUESTION IN THESE MARKETS IN MY MIND, IS WHAT OLD CROP VALUES WILL DO, GIVEN THAT WE START THE ROGERS ROLL ON THURSDAY AND IT LASTS UNTIL MONDAY, WHILE GOLDMAN STARTS ABOUT JUNE 7^TH  AND LASTS THROUGH JUNE 13^TH AND WE’LL BE SEEING PLANTY OF SPREADING OUT OF OC LONGS INTO NC POSITIONS, MOSTLY INTO SEPT AND NOV FOR BEANS AND SEPT AND DEC FOR CORN

I THINK THE ONLY SAFE CONCLUSION TO MAKE IN THESE MARKETS OVERALL IS THAT NEW CROP HAS TWO REASONS, WEATHER AND SPREADING, TO GAIN BOTH FLAT PRICE AND ON A SPREAD BASIS TO NEARBY JULY

GIVEN THAT SCENARIO, YOU LOOK TO BUY NEW CROP ON BREAKS AND SELL OLD CROP ON RALLIES

STILL THINK THE RAINS WILL BE OF A MUCH GREATER LONG TERM BENEFIT, BUT WE ARE GOING TO LOSE ABOUT 2 MLN ACRES OF CORN WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE AND BEANS WILL GET IN LATER THAN DESIRED, BUT MIGHT GET AS MUCH A 2 MLN MORE ACRES DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINS   Bob RJO

Friday 5-24-13

   American Battlefield Monuments Commission

   Paying Respects to War Dead by Bill Bartels

Talk of China canceling 3 bean cargos out of Brazil pressuring July beans  Probably did  more than that.

Ultimately this is not an "export thing" ...... it will be a "domestic crush" thing.                       

 D Jackson  

Thursday 5-23-13

Bids for soybeans are in a bit of flux tonight as Cargil went to the Nov.  It was one of the most unusual days most of us have seen in the soybean market.  I was out of town this afternoon so running late this evening.  FYI many quote systems have had problems the last couple of days also.  This is not a tradable market for anyone involved.  And it will probably get worse.  Dean

-Old crop corn sales woefully less than "needed"
-Soybean sales solid - especially new crop
-Soybean meal sales strongly outpace "needed" levels again
-Old crop wheat exports may still fall short of projection - solid new crop sales

Soybeans are now bid off of the August (Q) Cedar made the move this am and elevators will follow shortly.  The move took about 25 cents off the nearby basis.   Movement while not heavy has picked up especially for the June slot.  Bean supply will be tight but not today.   Traer has recieved 2.5 inches of rain the last few days. 

 From Cargil - Cedar Rapids

Dear Valued Customer,

We will begin probing back at CR East starting Wed, May 22^nd.   We are extending unloading hours this week Wed (5/22^nd) – Friday (5/24^th) to 7a-8p.

Sarah

Note: Cargil Soybean Plants and elevators are now bidding vs the August.  They have taken approx 25 cents off the basis. 

Crop Planting Report:

Crop Progress: 71% planted vs 79% ave19% emerged vs 46% ave

 24% planted vs 42% ave 3% emerged vs 14 % ave

Heartland Coop

Notes for Bids and updates

USDA Aug Beans … 42.6 bpa, production 3.255 bil

Subject: Floor Comment -- 10:20 am

                                LONG LIQUIDATION IN THE THINLY TRADED SEPT DELIVERY, AS SEPT BEANS ARE DOWN 25+ CENTS, SEPT MEAL IS DOWN $10+ AND SEPT CORN IS DOWN 12+ CENTS, WITH CU/CZ TARDING BELOW 15 CENTS NOW, AS CASH CORN BIDS ARE DOWN SHARPLY WITH SOME EARLY CUTTING OF SOME HIGHER MOISTURE CORN BEING DRIED DOWN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE INVERSE, WHILE WE HEAR OF RECORD OR WELL ABOVE TRENDLINE YIELDS IN LOUISIANA, MISSOURI AND A NUMBER OF SOUTHERN REGIONS

                                THE RECENT WARMUP MAY BE HURTING IOWA AND SOME OTHER SPOTS WHEN IT COMES TO BEANS, BUT IT’S SPEEDING MATURITY, DRYING CROPS AND ALLOWING FOR SOME EARLIER THAN EXPECTED HARVEST ALSO, AT LEAST IN CORN

                                NEARBY WEAKNESS IS WEIGHING ON NEW CROP MONTHS, WITH SX DOWN 4-6 CENTS, SMZ IS DOWN $2 AND CZ IS DOWN 2-3 CENTS, AFTRE TRADING AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS AT ONE JUNCTURE

                    SEPT DELIVERY, AS SEPT BEANS ARE DOWN 25+ CENTS, SEPT MEAL IS DOWN $10+ AND SEPT CORN IS DOWN 12+ CENTS, WITH CU/CZ TARDING BELOW 15 CENTS NOW, AS CASH CORN BIDS ARE DOWN SHARPLY WITH SOME EARLY CUTTING OF SOME HIGHER MOISTURE CORN BEING DRIED DOWN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE INVERSE, WHILE WE HEAR OF RECORD OR WELL ABOVE TRENDLINE YIELDS IN LOUISIANA, MISSOURI AND A NUMBER OF SOUTHERN REGIONS

 is delayed a