From: The Farm Futures Team [farmfutures@farmprogres.ccsend.com] on behalf of The Farm Futures Team [farmfutures@farmprogress.com]

Sent: Tuesday, June 25, 2013 2:48 PM

To: grain@grainnotes.com

Subject: FFD PM - 6/25/13 - Soybean Strength, Wheat and Corn Weakness

 


FFD Afternoon TM


Top Farm Business Risk Management Tool

June 25, 2013

Good afternoon: 

 

Today's early upside only managed to hold for the soybean and soybean meal futures as the wheat and corn sold off on a session that lacked fresh news. Tom Leffler, Leffler Commodities, is filling in for Market Analyst Paul Burgener today. 


Please use the authentication address farmfutures@farmprogres.ccsend.com

Sincerely, 

Bryce Knorr & Paul Burgener

 

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Soybean Strength, Wheat and Corn Weakness

by Tom Leffler, Leffler Commodities

This morning the May Durable Goods Orders, which measures demand for big-ticket items that have a life of three years or longer, were a +3.6%. This is the second straight month of upside. The April orders were revised higher from +3.3% to +3.6%

 

The outside markets performed much better today than the negative closes that occurred on Monday.

 

Today's StatsCan Canadian 2013 acreage survey came in very near the trade's pre-report estimates. All wheat was 26.178 million acres an increase over the 2012 acreage of 23.798 million. Canola acreage was pegged at 19.738 million acres, which is below last year's 21.531 million acres. Corn acreage was put at 3.645 million acres and last year's acreage was 3.544 million acres.

 

Friday will be an important trading session for the agriculture future markets due to the USDA acreage report and quarterly stocks report, first notice day for the July grain and soybean complexes July future contracts, the quarterly USDA hogs & pigs report and the final trading session for the month of June and second quarter of the year.

 

Based on a survey of over 20 analysts' by Reuters their average pre-report estimate for Corn acreage is 95.313 million acres a decrease of 1.969 million from the USDA March Intentions. Soybean acreage is 77.933 million acres an increase of 807,000 acres from the USDA March Intentions. All-Wheat acreage is 55.902 million acres a decrease of 538 million acres from the USDA March Intentions.

 

Based on a survey of over 20 analysts' by Reuters their average pre-report estimate for Corn quarterly stocks is 2.845 billion bushels a decrease of 303 million from June 2012. Soybean quarterly stocks are 442 million bushels a decrease of 225 million from June 2012. Wheat quarterly stocks are 745 million bushels an increase of 2 million from June 2012.

 

Corn futures experienced early upside in what was appearing to be a "Turnaround Tuesday" session, but that was short lived after the 8:30 re-opening. Only the July contract was able to hold positive by the close. New crop contracts found some pressure due to the slightly improvement in the corn condition rating and some crop-friendly weather forecasts.

 

For the second consecutive week the U.S. corn crop showed slight improvement, this week the good/excellent rating was up 1 point at 65%, the 10-year average is 68%. The Iowa rating improved by 4 points to 54% good to excellent, the 10-year average is 74%.

 

The December corn futures had an outside trading session today as it closed part of yesterday's open gap and then closed negative, but above the 50-day moving average. Sunday evening the contract left a 4 -cent open gap on the chart. Resistance is $5.50 the 100-day moving average, the $5.60 area and $5.73 the June high. Support is $5.39 the trend line off the December and April highs, $5.25 the June low and $5.12 the 2013 low.

 

Soybean and soybean meal futures for the second straight session traded and closed positive due to the strength of the July soybean and soybean meal future contracts. Demand and continued concerns over tight supplies are lifting the old crop contracts higher, at least till we see the USDA stock numbers on Friday.

 

The good/excellent rating of the U.S. soybean crop improved by 1 point to 65%. Iowa is at only 53%; and Arkansas and Missouri are both at 55% good to excellent. Interesting how Wisconsin saw their good to excellent improve from last week by 12 points and at the same time the poor to very poor increased by 6 points.

 

The U.S. soybean planting progress is at 92% and the 5-year average is 95%. There is still around 6.2 million acres that are unplanted. Soybean emergence is at 81% the 5-year average is 89%. North Dakota is 76%; Iowa is 75% and Wisconsin is 69%.

 

November soybeans today traded mixed, made a new high for the week and closed positive. The contract declined 78-cents from the June 7 high to the June low (Monday). Resistance is at $12.89 the 200-day moving average, then the $13.00 area and the $13.33 June high. Support starts at $12.68 the 50% retracement of the 2013 high to low, then $12.60 the 100-day moving average and then 12.51 the 50-day moving average.

 

Wheat futures today closed negative on all three exchanges. The July Kansas City contract had the largest downside as the winter wheat harvest progress is pressuring the price.

 

We continue to receive many reports from central Oklahoma through central Kansas that wheat yields are much better than had been anticipated. The lack of extreme heat late this spring and some timely moisture have helped to allow the better yields. We also have been hearing of country elevators filling up with wheat and being unable to move it out quick enough.

 

The weekly crop progress report showed the winter wheat harvest in the U.S. is 20% complete the 5-year average is 37% and a year ago it was 63% done. Harvesting is most active in Texas which is 55% done, 5-year average is 69% and a year ago 83%; Oklahoma that is 55% complete, 5-year average is 81% and year ago was 98% and Kansas is 8% harvested, 5-year average is 39% and year ago was 94%.

 

The U.S. Spring wheat is at 96% planted, with only North Dakota at 91% not done compared to the top six producing states. Spring wheat emergence is now 90%, with North Dakota lagging behind at 79%. The good to excellent rating is at 70% up 2 points from last week and below last year's 77%.

 

The KC September wheat traded mixed today, made a new low for the week and closed negative. The contract has closed below the 50-day moving average and 100-day moving average for 29 straight sessions. Resistance is at $7.54 the 50-day moving average and then at $7.66 the 100-day moving average. Support is $7.10 the June and 2013 low and then $6.93 the contract low.

 

Chicago September wheat today had mixed trading, made a new low for the week and closed negative. Sunday evening the contract left an open chart gap to the downside of 1-cent. Resistance starts at $7.08 the 50-day moving average and then $7.19 the 100-day moving average. Support $6.81 the May low and then at $6.73 the contract low.

 

The Minneapolis September wheat had and outside trading session to the downside with a new high and low for the week and closed negative today. The contract has traded on both sides of the 50-day moving average for the past 43 sessions and currently has been below the 50-day moving average the past 11 sessions. Resistance is at $8.01 the 50-day moving average and then $8.07 the 100-day moving average and $8.35 the May high. Support begins at $7.79 the June low, then $7.63 the April low and $7.50 the contract low.

  

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Mr. LEFFLER Does not currently maintain interest in the commodities mentioned within this report.   

 

Closing Quotes


Here's a look at closing quotes for key commodities from Tuesday's trade.

  
    

 

Paul Burgener, Market Analyst, Farm Futures    Paul Burgener 

Contact Paul at pburgener@farmprogress.com 

 


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